News from Tatton Investment Management: The Lagarde pivot hits insecure markets
4 February 2022, 12:00am
We made the case last month that we disagree with the market maxim that “How January goes, so goes the year”, at least for 2022. After a disappointing January for investors (see our January market review), February made a promising start, only to revert to last month’s wild down and up trading pattern towards the end of the week. This was despite the week not having been dominated by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) or Russian manoeuvres (admittedly Boris Johnson was still big news – but only in the UK).
Nevertheless, what unnerved markets on Thursday and Friday followed the same playbook as the market turbulence in January: central banks announcing their determination to no longer ignore inflation pressures and markets reckoning with the idea that the growth slowdown is slowly morphing into a growth slump. The main protagonists this week were the European Central Bank (ECB) and Meta (aka Facebook). The ECB’s president Lagarde (finally) declared that inflationary pressures had to be countered with a change in monetary policy towards a gradual tightening – not immediately, but in due course.
This followed the course prescribed by both the Fed and the Bank of England (BoE), and means that all major central banks, bar the People’s Bank of China have now pivoted from an easing to a tightening stance – although only the BoE has raised rates so far. Even without any actual tightening action, bond markets were quick to respond, as the chart below vividly illustrates. It shows the upward yield movement over the course of a week in bonds with maturities between one and 30 years.
As regular readers will know, rising bond yields put downward pressure on stock market valuations, unless corporate profits (equities’ earnings yield) can grow faster than the rising yield effect has on their share price valuation metrics. This would explain why US mega-tech companies are currently getting so extraordinarily penalised when they report disappointing earnings growth. Meta – formerly known as Facebook – lost about 25% on Thursday after reporting it expected next quarter’s revenues to only increase somewhere between 3% and 11% (after last year’s first quarter near 50% increase that was clearly seen as ‘disaster territory’). The US S&P500 index fell 2.4% on the day, and commentators were quick to point out markets were pulled down by Meta’s falling advertising revenues pointing towards a distinct economic slowdown.
We would note that of the 2.4% fall, 1.1 percentage points (or 45% of the decline) was attributable just to Meta’s 25% slump – perhaps not surprising given we are talking about one the biggest of the US mega caps. Furthermore, Alphabet (Google) reported a 36% rise in advertising revenue for the same quarter – making Meta’s revenue growth slump look far more stock-specific than a more general economic indicator (See our separate article this week).
What do we make of the turbulent markets? Clearly investors are concerned central banks are pivoting towards monetary tightening exactly at the point when the economy is at risk of slowing further, sliding from a slowdown in growth that started after last year’s activity bounce-back into a more serious growth shock. Should the central banks stick to their guns as growth turns negative this would clearly be seen as constituting a central bank error – historically the most common reason for economic recession.
Market nervousness is therefore understandable, given the economic outlook has become far hazier than it was a year ago as the cycle has gone from its ‘early’ to ‘mid-cycle’ phase. Moreover, investors have no experience with post-global-pandemic recoveries to ground them, which only increases the level of uncertainty and insecurity.
We remain optimistic for portfolio investors for 2022 overall, although we admit that the outlook for the first quarter of the year is no longer looking positive. The shock to disposable consumer incomes from energy price rises is going to have a knock-on effect on corporate earnings, which may slow companies’ willingness to invest and spend. Interestingly, this dynamic makes aggressive central bank tightening action much less likely, as the job of curtailing demand to dampen demand-driven inflation pressure is taken out of their hands before they are forced to act. This is provided consumers are not able to compensate through higher wages – which would explain the BoE Governor’s explicit warning to UK citizens this week to resist the urge to ask for wage increases (See our separate article this week).
Cleary, central bankers, just like us, have very vivid memories/knowledge of the wage-price-inflation spiral dynamics of the 1970s, and are therefore doubly alert to the potential dangers we are now facing. However, this vividness of memories does not apply to the average consumer, and neither do we still have widespread collective wage bargaining structures that encourage blanket wage hikes. Here at Tatton, we discussed these matters intensively over the week and conclude, that while we cannot be entirely certain, we expect that the loud noises from central banks – together with the cacophony of the coming price shock or price-of-living-crisis – will see consumers tread more carefully with their spending plans, rather than all at once resigning from their jobs in pursuit of higher pay.
Spring still feels a long way away, and the next few weeks may continue to be both unnerving and somewhat unstable in capital markets. For now, all signs from the global economy point towards a blip, rather than a cycle-ending downturn. We have been in these situations before, and capital markets have tended to ‘look-through’ such periods when there were enough signs that the slowdown would ultimately prove temporary.
As always, we will be monitoring the developments, and will keep you informed about our latest observations and conclusions here.
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Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us
6 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card
23 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!
16 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook
8 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?
2 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets
25 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check
18 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music
11 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat
11 November 2019, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019
4 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind
28 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning
21 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue
17 October 2019, 12:00am
17 October 2019, 12:00am
Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)
14 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
7 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading
30 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength
23 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re
16 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
9 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...
2 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'
27 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?
19 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets
11 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again
5 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady
29 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick
22 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly
15 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see
8 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs
1 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?
24 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’
17 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages
10 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?
3 June 2019, 12:00am
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Appointment by Frenkel Topping
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019
3 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings
27 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer
20 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?
13 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage
7 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations
29 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice
23 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?
16 April 2019, 12:00am
Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019
15 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving
8 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market
1 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end
25 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions
18 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces
11 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed
4 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay
25 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?
18 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes
15 November 2018, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018
15 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off
1 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?
27 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new
7 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead
31 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the worldâ€
24 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics
17 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost
10 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he
3 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?
27 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?
20 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?
13 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?
6 July 2018, 12:00am
Notice of Annual General Meeting
6 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot
29 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?
27 June 2018, 12:00am
Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018
22 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery
15 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises
8 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium
1 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril
25 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!
18 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?
11 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?
4 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?
27 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?
20 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that
29 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter
23 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!
16 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?
9 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth
2 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits
23 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?
16 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment
9 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac
6 February 2018, 12:00am
Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment
2 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!
26 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises
19 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion
12 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells
5 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off
15 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock
8 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin
5 December 2017, 12:00am
Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017
1 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected
24 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?
17 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?
10 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets
3 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate
27 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season
13 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be
6 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news
29 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements
22 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft
15 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?
8 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes
1 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news
25 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?
18 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers
11 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?
4 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling
28 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’
21 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed
14 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check
7 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe
23 June 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?