News from Tatton Investment Management: The Fed at work and China snubs Putin
16 September 2022, 12:00am
The period of mourning for Queen Elizabeth II continues amid truly touching scenes. Our Chief Economist’s walk from Rotherhithe to the Tatton office follows the path of the waiting line for the Queen’s “Lying-in-State”. Usually, the early morning walk is a fairly lonely experience but, over the past two days, he has been accompanied on the entire route by people making their gentle way to pay their respects.
Moving to investment concerns, the consequences of a European war continue to dominate our economy and markets, as it does throughout Western Europe and, to some degree Asia. Meanwhile, seemingly unaffected by the rest of the world, the US is blazing its own trail.
This is predominantly because US energy security means they do not face the same input cost pressures. Nevertheless, inflation still remains a problem for the US Central Bank, the Fed. The August consumer price data reflected a fall back in oil-related pressures but tightness in the labour market continues to feed through. Therefore, and perhaps surprisingly, the US is faced with a more structural inflation issue through looming wage-price-spiral dynamics than Europe.
Labour clearly does wield some pricing power. A US rail strike, the first for 30 years was called off on Thursday after a deal neared agreement. According to the BBC, it includes a 24% wage increase and $5,000 bonuses, as well as changes to existing policies on time off, which had been a crucial sticking point for workers.
The ability to pay the increases suggests that US companies have more cash-flow leeway. It also suggests that next Wednesday’s meeting (21st) of the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee will decide to raise rates to at least 0.75%. Some analysts, like investment bank Nomura, think they will raise the Fed Fund target rate by 1%pt to a 3.25-3.5% band. More importantly few think US interest rates are close to the peak. That is now seen to be around 4.5%.
It does look like the Fed seemingly loosened its grip on the US economy during the summer and will now have to tighten harder, after the fallback in inflation expectations data perhaps allowed a bit of complacency. The money supply (M2) data showed some reacceleration over the past quarter as seen in the graph below:
It has been noticeable that private sector credit growth has been the driver, both on the corporate and the consumer side, while the government has reined in spending.
Equity markets fell back, as government bond yields rose. The 10-year treasury is within touching distance of yielding 3.5% while the 10-year “real” yield (after 10-year inflation expectations) has moved above 1%. Credit spreads, which had moved to quite low levels at the end of last week, rose although not to the highs seen in August. We write about the current relative resilience of US corporate credits in an article below.
Ray Dalio, co-CIO of renowned US investment managers, Bridgewater Associates, ventured the opinion that the leading US market Index, the S&P 500, would fall some 20% over time if long rates were to go to his expected level of 4.5% - 1% higher than in the UK amid continued inflation pressure. Our assessment is that, if he is right about a rise in long rates to 4.5%, it would definitely put more downward pressure on US stock valuations as bonds’ attractiveness increases. However, the flip side of such a rise in yields would be produced by strong nominal earnings growth, while real yields would rise less overall, which would limit valuation pressures on equities. There would also be an offset from probable further strength in the US Dollar. Overall, even if Ray Dalio is proved right, in Sterling terms, the S&P500 fall should be limited to within the region of 5-10%.
All that assumes that long rates do move up to that level. Clearly there is a trend to move higher but we should also factor in the relative weakness of the rest of the world’s economy. The US can be less affected for some time but not forever. While the US economy is stronger than expected one should not overstate it. The summer bounce has been relatively muted amid a clear slowing centred mostly on the west coast and its tech companies. Meanwhile construction, the major economic driver for 2021, has slowed and is not rebounding given that mortgage rates remain at 6%. Meanwhile August retail sales disappointed.
Seasonally, consumer spending picks up through the last quarter so the Fed will be anxious, waiting to see if consumers have just delayed their purchases. The Fed showed determination in the first part of the year and will probably reassert itself next week. We would be unsurprised by a 1% rate rise (rather than 0.75%) and think that after this week’s moves the market is already prepared for the bigger move.
Elsewhere, international pressure on Vladimir Putin is growing from what might seem to be an unlikely source. He met China’s Xi Jinping this week to cement their relationship, but it did not quite go to plan. Putin stridently supported China’s position on Taiwan but there was no such reciprocation from Xi. Indeed, Xi reportedly expressed his concerns about Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Before the meeting, some market analysts reported that relations between Russia and China were cooling rather than improving. Signum Global Advisors noted Chinese companies “have scaled down their exports, suspended deliveries or started winding down their operations on the Russian market altogether”. This may seem at odds with the Chinese official rhetoric, but the private sector behaviour is being tacitly accepted.
China’s recent domestic weakness may be on a path to some improvement, but it is slower than we expected. The policy crackdowns, that partly led to the compression, are being eased but China is deeply reliant on foreign demand for its goods. The US is pulling a huge amount of Chinese goods in, but Europe’s slowdown is really hurting. China would really like Russia to cease its energy war.
Reluctance to validate Russia’s actions is probably most evident in the data on energy imports. Bloomberg and Morgan Stanley published a chart earlier this week which shows the changes in Russia’s oil exports to various regions (we have adjusted it to show the country changes more clearly):
After the bad-tempered episode involving Taiwan and Nancy Pelosi, there appear to be efforts from both the US and China to calm relations. While it will not dissuade Putin from continuing the conflict, it may weaken his hand further.
In summary, while there are formidable headwinds to the global economy, which from time to time create particularly strong market reactions, there are likewise positives that balance the negatives in-between. We are still going through a post pandemic period that is characterised by increasing economic activity. However, because of the formidable disruptions of the past two years, this is neither happening in a straight line, nor does it happen without impacting yield levels as we had become used to over the past decade.
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26 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear
24 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'
17 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine
10 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?
3 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week
27 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?
20 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018
14 January 2020, 12:00am
13 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good
8 January 2020, 12:00am
Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us
6 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card
23 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!
16 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook
8 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?
2 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets
25 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check
18 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music
11 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat
11 November 2019, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019
4 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind
28 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning
21 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue
17 October 2019, 12:00am
17 October 2019, 12:00am
Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)
14 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
7 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading
30 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength
23 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re
16 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
9 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...
2 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'
27 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?
19 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets
11 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again
5 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady
29 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick
22 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly
15 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see
8 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs
1 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?
24 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’
17 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages
10 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?
3 June 2019, 12:00am
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Appointment by Frenkel Topping
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019
3 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings
27 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer
20 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?
13 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage
7 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations
29 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice
23 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?
16 April 2019, 12:00am
Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019
15 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving
8 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market
1 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end
25 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions
18 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces
11 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed
4 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay
25 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?
18 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes
15 November 2018, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018
15 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off
1 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?
27 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new
7 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead
31 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the worldâ€
24 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics
17 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost
10 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he
3 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?
27 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?
20 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?
13 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?
6 July 2018, 12:00am
Notice of Annual General Meeting
6 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot
29 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?
27 June 2018, 12:00am
Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018
22 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery
15 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises
8 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium
1 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril
25 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!
18 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?
11 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?
4 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?
27 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?
20 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that
29 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter
23 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!
16 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?
9 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth
2 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits
23 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?
16 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment
9 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac
6 February 2018, 12:00am
Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment
2 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!
26 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises
19 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion
12 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells
5 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off
15 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock
8 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin
5 December 2017, 12:00am
Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017
1 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected
24 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?
17 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?
10 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets
3 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate
27 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season
13 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be
6 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news
29 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements
22 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft
15 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?
8 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes
1 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news
25 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?
18 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers
11 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?
4 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling
28 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’
21 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed
14 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check
7 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe
23 June 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?