News from Tatton Investment Management: Bear market fear as another tech bubble deflates
13 May 2022, 12:00am
To some investors it will seem that the old investor adage of ‘Sell in May and go away’ has once again been proven correct, especially when the US S&P500 fell within touching distance of that bear market threshold of -20% this week. While the US stock market fall is a fact, what is different to previous market correction since the pandemic crisis is that it has affected especially those risk assets that for a while were deemed safe havens when economic growth prospects falter, namely US tech mega cap names and generally tech as quoted on the Nasdaq.
For such a long time, the prospect of a weak economic growth environment would mean buying large-cap US tech. Their secular growth, i.e. growth not dependent on general economic growth, would overwhelm any concern over falling earnings in near-term cycles. However, it seems that the beginning of the post covid period has changed things. During the lockdowns, cash flooded into the hands of small investors (especially in the US), who, unable to spend, used their time to trade stocks. They picked what they perceived as promising and thereby created their own winners. That meant the tech stocks and crypto currencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, etc.
Now, the end of transfer payment, and the arrival of inflation triggering the cost-of-living crisis there is less excess cash to save from wages while, the cost of borrowing has gone up. Perhaps unsurprisingly then, the value of the assets that they bought has been heading back towards their cost.
As a simple exercise we looked at the NASDAQ 100 index and Bitcoin. If an investor bought the equity index and bitcoin, in an equal amount every day from May 2020 to April 2021, their average cost across all purchases would be around an index level of 12,000 for the NASDAQ100 and a Bitcoin valuation of $40,000.
As the chart above illustrates (with Bitcoin levels on the left-hand axis and the NASDAQ 100 level on the right) this week both instruments moved below those prices, which coincided with a sharp acceleration in downward pressure on both. Cryptocurrency holders suffered a particularly rude awakening this week, as the sharp falls shattered dreams of making a living or even getting rich from their trading activity. We look at how confidence in the world of cryptocurrency ‘tokens’ and ‘stablecoins’ has been shaken this week in a separate article.
Through the reporting season for Q1 2022, several of the mega-cap tech firms have been telling investors that the change in the economic backdrop means that – due to their size and variable revenue base – they are no longer confident of their ability to simply outgrow such headwinds. For example, Netflix was hit a couple of weeks ago as subscribers cancelled subscriptions to unburden household budgets to pay for more essential goods. This week, ride-hailing app Uber told investors they too would be cutting costs. This seems significant; Uber’s incremental cost base is now subject to the same inflation pressures as elsewhere.
Liquidity, or the perception of financial comfort (perhaps in the form of unrealised profits for some), may be drying up. We should therefore expect the travails of the US stock market to have quite an impact on consumer confidence and ultimately in their willingness to spend. Given how rapid this has unfolded over the past few weeks, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may feel that its tightening of monetary policy is at last having the desired disinflationary impact by reining in gushing demand.
These dynamics have already manifested themselves in the bond market, which are indicating that inflation expectations have slipped back. We observe this from real returns on bonds (yields after inflation expectations) having remained broadly stable, while fixed rate yields have moved sharply down. That probably signals good economic news in the longer-term, and also good news for risk asset markets, which after the recent declines no longer look overvalued as their earnings yields have risen relative to bond yields.
At the beginning of April, when markets recovered from the shock of the invasion of Ukraine, we said markets felt priced for perfection. Now they appear priced and braced for the onset of a global recession. Those recession fears centre largely on the input price inflation from energy and food supply constraints that are expected to force central banks to increase rates further, thereby choking off the post-pandemic economic recovery. In other words, market sentiment has likely slipped from one extreme to the other.
Yes, inflation readings are high, but they are no longer increasing. High energy prices are also having the effect of bringing idle production capacity of oil exporting countries back online. Only this week volume figures from Iraq showed far higher export levels than OPEC’s caps would have us expect. The ‘invisible hand’ of markets and economies is doing its job. More crucially, if current market pessimism stems from the cost-of-living crisis caused by the energy price shock, by autumn this concern may well be confined to those parts of Western Europe particularly dependent on Russian gas.
Of course, we have written before about China’s difficulties in handling its COVID policies of late. Not only has it lowered Chinese consumer demand, but also productive capacity, which might bring supply issues back to the forefront. While uncertainties persist, it appears China is coming back online quicker than anticipated and having been reluctant to offer Western-style economic support during the main pandemic period, China at last appears willing to embrace a much looser and accommodative policy stance.
This leaves the fallout from the bursting of the latest tech (and crypto) bubble to contend with. Those who remember the aftermath of the dot-com bubble in 2000 will know consumer demand dropped enough to cause a recession. There is some risk of this, although history has a tendency to rhyme rather than repeat. We entered this period with a surplus of savings and a surge in activity as people were keen to return to normal spending habits they had to resist during the pandemic years. Should the setback in the tech and crypto markets subdue consumer demand, and also take the heat out of central bank rhetoric, then we may have reached a notable turning point for a decline in 2022’s bond market headwinds.
All in all, the various economic data points of the week suggest there is some cause for optimism that the ‘bear scare’ may be running out of fuel. Not only have market valuations reached more ‘normal’ levels but company valuations are also returning to more normal metrics based on facts and figures, rather than merely hopes, believes and self-enforcing herd mentalities.
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New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?
3 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week
27 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?
20 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018
14 January 2020, 12:00am
13 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good
8 January 2020, 12:00am
Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us
6 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card
23 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!
16 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook
8 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?
2 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets
25 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check
18 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music
11 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat
11 November 2019, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019
4 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind
28 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning
21 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue
17 October 2019, 12:00am
17 October 2019, 12:00am
Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)
14 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
7 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading
30 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength
23 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re
16 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
9 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...
2 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'
27 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?
19 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets
11 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again
5 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady
29 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick
22 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly
15 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see
8 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs
1 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?
24 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’
17 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages
10 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?
3 June 2019, 12:00am
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Appointment by Frenkel Topping
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019
3 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings
27 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer
20 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?
13 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage
7 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations
29 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice
23 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?
16 April 2019, 12:00am
Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019
15 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving
8 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market
1 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end
25 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions
18 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces
11 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed
4 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay
25 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?
18 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes
15 November 2018, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018
15 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off
1 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?
27 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new
7 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead
31 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the worldâ€
24 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics
17 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost
10 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he
3 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?
27 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?
20 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?
13 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?
6 July 2018, 12:00am
Notice of Annual General Meeting
6 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot
29 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?
27 June 2018, 12:00am
Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018
22 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery
15 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises
8 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium
1 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril
25 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!
18 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?
11 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?
4 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?
27 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?
20 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that
29 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter
23 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!
16 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?
9 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth
2 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits
23 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?
16 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment
9 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac
6 February 2018, 12:00am
Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment
2 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!
26 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises
19 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion
12 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells
5 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off
15 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock
8 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin
5 December 2017, 12:00am
Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017
1 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected
24 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?
17 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?
10 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets
3 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate
27 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season
13 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be
6 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news
29 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements
22 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft
15 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?
8 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes
1 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news
25 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?
18 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers
11 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?
4 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling
28 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’
21 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed
14 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check
7 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe
23 June 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?