New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning
28 October 2019, 12:00am
We wrote before that the Boris Johnson story would mark the closing chapters of Brexit – but that an exit by the end of October was unlikely, his preference for being dead in a ditch aside.
If the Prime Minister gets his election on December 12 after having delivered on his Brexit promises, it would most likely give us significantly reduced levels of near-term uncertainty, which would be a considerable positive for both the UK economy and its stock market. But the trade-off for this is increased medium-term uncertainty: the real negotiations – which will determine the UK’s future – will only start at that point. There is a real chance that Johnson’s envisaged form of a relatively hard Brexit would lead to a break-up of the UK itself, and substantive trade negotiations can only really happen at that point. For all the negativity however, there is still a strong case for the UK as an investment proposition. We write more about this in a separate article.
Now on to other developments. We note that the movers and shakers in the economic policy realm are becoming increasingly in favour of fiscal easing – with a chorus of economists and global central bankers now urging governments to invest. Outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi found it difficult to convince European politicians of any real change during his tenure. But the incoming Christine Lagarde is a politician herself and may prove more persuasive. Many European governments are on board with fiscal action, but her task will be to convince German politicians that, if they want to save their banks from negative interest rates and yields, they need to flank monetary policy with fiscal support. Either that or accept that the ECB needs to buy Italian government bonds. We will see which route it takes. See our article below for more on the growing consensus for fiscal expansion (more in the separate article).
In other news, we advised last week that we would keep an even closer eye on the corporate results announcement season this quarter, because investor sentiment now hinges on it more than usual. The earnings season has made an encouraging start in the US, but slightly less so in Europe and Japan. 82% of the American companies that have reported so far have beaten earnings-per-share estimates for the last quarter, with that figure at 59% and 54% in Europe and Japan respectively. As we wrote last week however, these figures can be a little misleading. Since the surprise metrics (how earnings fared relative to estimates) are important for sentiment, companies have learnt that they are better off guiding forecasts down in the run up to the earnings season only to beat them later on – precisely what happened this time.
More important therefore is companies’ expectations for the coming quarters. And on that front, things have been mixed. There were some positive statements from European luxury goods makers – which most likely is due to positive demand from China.
![](/TAM graph 28.10.19.jpg)
Nevertheless, market sentiment seems to be picking up. The fact that bond yields have moved higher while equity markets have traded sideways suggests that short sellers are getting squeezed out of the market, and risk sentiment is improving. The economic data does not yet support a significant move up in markets, but it does seem to be stabilising – which will likewise have a positive impact on sentiment.
The big one to watch for markets this earnings season is the fate of large US technology companies which had been driving stocks upwards for most of this market cycle. When office space provider WeWork had to shelve their prospective IPO a few weeks ago (and this week had to seek a bailout by its biggest private equity investor) many commentators suggested it could mean the end of big tech’s stock market supremacy. Spectacular growth has been the main aim of these companies for some time. But we note that many of the outlook statements from tech companies this time around seem to be focusing on the prospects for profitability, rather than just growth. This could well be a sign of the changing times, with the economic and regulatory environment now seeming to swing against them and tech growth gradually morphing into less exciting utility companies.
But as we noted some weeks ago, companies all over the world are seeing their profit margins squeezed as a global slowdown, trade frictions and growing wage pressures begin to bite. Amazon’s results on Thursday showed that even the tech superstars are facing the same problems. That may be a cause for concern.
The preliminary-release Purchasing Manager Indices signalled a currently weak global economy (according to Capital Economics) but it does not seem to be spoiling the mood in capital markets. They seem to be betting that a turnaround is in store for the economy. The turn-up in new orders is now into a second month, most likely led by that swing in demand from Asia (chart below, right panel). The sharp fall in the employment forward indicators (chart below, left panel) would have been a worry a month ago, but the bad news might actually be good if it presages a slowdown in wage pressures rather than a rise in unemployment.
![](/tam pic 2.png)
Looking ahead to next week, the US rate-setters (the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee or FOMC) meet and are expected to cut rates on Wednesday. Analysts have expected another 0.25% cut for some time and continue to do so.
However, this week has seen a fall in longer bond prices (and consequent rise in yields) following the IMF meeting. The market is taking the central banks’ concerns about the efficacy of monetary policy seriously. Shorter-term rate expectations have not moved much, but the market is now moving away from believing monetary policy is the likely response to a crisis. The market’s implied probability of even lower rates has diminished, and expectations of more QE are also on the wane.
So, investors will care most about the FOMC’s future disposition. If other central banks are an indicator, we should expect to hear more about being “responsive to the upside†and “signs of labour cost pressuresâ€. That is not such good news for longer bonds. The price falls this week may be the start of a bout of medium-term downward pressure.
Given that the very strong returns of 2019 have been largely attributed to improving sentiment, and given the return of the central bank’s monetary easing (introduced after the fears for the opposite caused the Q4 2018 market correction), the big question is how much central banks will be able to step back from further easing without causing another market tantrum. Much will hinge on whether the ‘green shoots’ of returning demand growth can sprout further, and whether governments are willing to help them with constructive fiscal easing.
The fragile balance between fear and greed continues.
(…or between JOMO and FOMO if you are trying to explain to your teenager or grandchild; Joy of missing out vs. Fear of missing out in case there is no access to younger generation translation support)
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24 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'
17 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine
10 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?
3 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week
27 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?
20 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018
14 January 2020, 12:00am
13 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good
8 January 2020, 12:00am
Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us
6 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card
23 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!
16 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook
8 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?
2 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets
25 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check
18 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music
11 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat
11 November 2019, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019
4 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind
28 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning
21 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue
17 October 2019, 12:00am
17 October 2019, 12:00am
Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)
14 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
7 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading
30 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength
23 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re
16 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
9 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...
2 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'
27 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?
19 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets
11 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again
5 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady
29 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick
22 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly
15 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see
8 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs
1 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?
24 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’
17 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages
10 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?
3 June 2019, 12:00am
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Appointment by Frenkel Topping
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019
3 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings
27 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer
20 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?
13 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage
7 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations
29 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice
23 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?
16 April 2019, 12:00am
Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019
15 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving
8 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market
1 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end
25 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions
18 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces
11 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed
4 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay
25 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?
18 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes
15 November 2018, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018
15 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off
1 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?
27 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new
7 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead
31 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the worldâ€
24 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics
17 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost
10 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he
3 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?
27 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?
20 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?
13 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?
6 July 2018, 12:00am
Notice of Annual General Meeting
6 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot
29 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?
27 June 2018, 12:00am
Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018
22 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery
15 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises
8 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium
1 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril
25 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!
18 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?
11 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?
4 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?
27 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?
20 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that
29 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter
23 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!
16 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?
9 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth
2 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits
23 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?
16 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment
9 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac
6 February 2018, 12:00am
Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment
2 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!
26 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises
19 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion
12 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells
5 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off
15 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock
8 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin
5 December 2017, 12:00am
Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017
1 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected
24 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?
17 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?
10 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets
3 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate
27 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season
13 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be
6 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news
29 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements
22 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft
15 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?
8 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes
1 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news
25 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?
18 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers
11 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?
4 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling
28 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’
21 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed
14 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check
7 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe
23 June 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?