Latest News from Tatton Investment Management: Reading the runes of this week's market bounce
7 October 2022, 12:00am
Market volatility has been in the air all year and given the macroeconomic backdrop this is not at all surprising. A weakening global economy marred by war and labour market-driven supply squeezes, while simultaneously trying to cope with aggressive central bank rate hiking to prevent inflation turning permanent, all makes for the distinct whiff of recession. But volatile markets do not always swipe down, as the beginning of this week showed, nor do they stay volatile forever. Monday and Tuesday saw a formidable ‘relief’ rally in global equities. Indeed, on Tuesday, US stocks recorded their biggest daily gain since 2020, leaving the S&P 500 up 5% by midweek.
The rally did not extend greatly, and the relief felt slight. Stocks slid back toward the end of the week, but not by the same margin. And neither did they collapse after – on the face of it – very disappointing news of OPEC+ oil supply cuts. Indeed, the week has felt like a microcosm of how the year has gone so far: down-trending capital markets, ricocheting between yield rise-driven recession fear and bear market rallies when hope takes hold that inflation is turning over.
As a result, bond yields have been rising steadily, driving down bond and equity valuations throughout this year. That means the expected rate of return for being invested in them has risen – good news in some sense. However, the volatility in the process – read increased uncertainty – makes the higher expected return seem less attractive in the near term. But when markets appear to calm down, when the volatility decreases, those higher expected returns begin to look more attractive.
This week’s toning down of actual and expected volatility has therefore helped sentiment, even if it is definitely too early to call it a trend. The chart below shows the track of equity (brown) and currency volatility (blue):
As the chart illustrates, currency volatility has coincided with the year’s downtrend and so the US dollar’s partial retreat against most currencies this week was another driver of marginally improved investor risk appetite. Why? Because the exceptional economic strength of the US – and its relative insulation from the rest of the world’s travails – has been a driver of dollar strength and, historically, a strong dollar has coincided with weaker global trade.
There is much debate about whether a strong dollar causes weaker global growth, or is merely a sign of weak growth beyond the shores of the US economy. But there is no doubt that, while the rest of the world languishes, a US central bank (Federal Reserve/Fed) purely focused on domestic inflation pressures does not help the global economy. Indeed, Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary (and former Fed Chair) sounded a warning bell on Thursday, speaking at a central banker symposium:
“Policymakers in the major economies must continue implementing policies to rein in high inflation while remaining attentive to global repercussions [our emphasis]. Clear and open communications, coupled with cooperation among the major economies to address spillovers, remain essential.”
She may have been addressing the audience of central bankers, but everyone knows she was really addressing the Fed. So, as we wrote last week, a bit less of “I’m alright Jack” from the US is likely to help global capital markets, and Yellen’s influential comments suggest the US is not totally unaware of its impact on global financial conditions.
Back to this week’s market action, Monday and Tuesday's market optimism came from bad economic news of weak US employment data, which might seem perverse. Job openings in the world’s largest economy fell by more than one million in August, the largest fall since the start of the pandemic. But, with the Fed still intent on crushing inflationary pressure by cooling wages, bad news is good news as far as investors are concerned. The hope is that rising unemployment will give the Fed license to ease its grip, bringing the fabled ‘peak interest rates’ forward and setting the stage for looser financial conditions next year as the Fed pivots away from raising rates further. The JOLTS (Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey) data thereby jolted markets upwards.
Up stepped the world’s oil barons to dash such hopes. On Wednesday, OPEC+ agreed to cut production targets by 2 million barrels per day from November. As well as reducing crude supply, and thereby squeezing fuel prices even higher, the apparent unity shown by de facto leaders Russia (the ‘+’ in OPEC+) and Saudi Arabia puts the latter on a political collision course with the US.
As we write in a separate article this week, the apparent ‘betrayal’ probably has more to do with oil producers’ inability to even meet existing targets and weak demand, than Russia’s desire to exert influence, or the Saudis’ willingness to help it. Reduced oil supply is an unwelcome headwind nonetheless, and one that is likely to hurt the US economy more than others – given its sensitivity to gasoline prices. Traders seemed to agree, punishing American stocks more than British or European counterparts.
On this side of the Atlantic, natural gas is a much bigger concern than oil. Europe’s energy crisis is probably the major global economic concern as we head into a harsh winter. Interestingly, gas prices have actually been on a steady downfall recently – which has gone entirely unremarked by European equity markets. At the same time, governments across Europe have unveiled enormous spending plans to protect businesses and consumers against the worst energy price spikes.
Germany’s massive €200 billion support programme announced last week is the headline act in this line-up. Despite being debt-funded and amounting to a substantial loosening of fiscal policy, bond markets have not punished German bunds for the apparent laxity with public money. This is in sharp contrast to the UK’s experience over the last couple of weeks. We discuss what this means for Eurozone debt dynamics in a separate article below.
As for the UK market itself, this week offered some respite – though not much. Gilt yields dropped back below 4% (they had touched 5% before the Bank of England (BoE) intervention the previous week) in tandem with the early equity rally. Sterling also recovered, reaching the $1.14 level it held before Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s not-so-mini-budget two weeks ago. Midweek jitters reversed these trends though, with yields rising and sterling falling into the weekend. Thankfully, these falls were not as severe as the chaos wrought in the last fortnight.
Interventions from the government and (especially) the BoE have stopped the bleeding, although it would be a stretch to say UK assets are in good health. Britain’s current account deficit (money flowing in minus money flowing out) makes our economy and financial system largely dependent on the will of foreign capital. In that respect, it is at least heartening to see – as the bond and currency recovery showed – that overseas investors have not yet lost all trust.
Liz Truss’ fledgling government has actually had a better week, at least in the eyes of some investors, if not among her own Tory MPs. The near-chaos at the Conservative conference – replete with rebellions, U-turns and accusations of a “coup” – passed by with the Prime Minister finishing with an appeal to optimism, albeit with little in her speech to tell us why. Yet, the conference drama coincided with the rebound in gilts and sterling, suggesting markets are not too concerned with the situation.
Perhaps this could be down to Conservative MPs’ successful lobbying on the 45% top rate of tax. The government appears to have little ability to force an unpopular radical agenda in the face of opposition from its parliamentary party. Truss’ backtracking came quickly after repeated insistence she was not for turning. Markets might be inclined to think that this government is paralysed from making any sweeping changes – and markets tend to prefer the absence of surprises.
However, many UK exporting companies will be cheering at signs of rapprochement with Europe. The Times trailed a series of bilateral compromises over the Northern Ireland Protocol, including an extremely important acceptance of (some) jurisdiction for the European Court of Justice. And then, in Prague, a genuine warming of relations with French President Emmanuel Macron (perhaps the most influential of European leaders) sharply improved the sense that we may be moving beyond break-up to make-up.
It will still take time, but this raises the prospect of some freeing-up of access to Europe’s markets. It also may speed up stalled trade negotiations with the US. Given the strength of the dollar, making UK goods and services highly price competitive, improved access to US markets is vital.
Betting markets still imply a 50/50 chance of Truss leaving office before 2024 and the next General Election. Nevertheless, it will be difficult for the Conservatives to row back from a more pro-Europe stance if a warmer relationship brings economic benefits.
Day-to-day politics does not usually have much impact on asset prices, but last week’s chaos showed when it does, it can be to devastating effect. If the new government is as market-oriented as it claims, and is prepared to be responsive to the warnings it sends, then investors will give a little cheer.
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20 April 2020, 12:00am
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20 April 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Stock markets between hope and despair
15 April 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Is now the time to invest?
13 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fading threat of financial crisis re-opens old divide
6 April 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Unprecedented quarter or calm before the storm?
30 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Extraordinary: bear and bull market all in one
24 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Why have stock markets appeared to rally on the lock-do
23 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Government ordered recession
19 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Confusion reigns in Capital Markets
18 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Why aren't you doing something?
17 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: From euphoric recovery to depressed tumble
16 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Notes on a crash: the short, the medium and long term
13 March 2020, 12:00am
New video from Tatton Investment Management: Panic equity selling or panic raising of precautionar
12 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Forced sellers and other distractions
9 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Dark times or glimpse of light at the end of the tunn
6 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: News of a reverse oil price shock rattles markets bey
2 March 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Coronavirus - hitting too close to home
28 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: This week's market correction requires perspective
26 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: COVID-19 and the reaction of markets to pandemic fear
24 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US markets hit new all-time highs and a 'bump'
17 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: V-shaped recovery for Valentine
10 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets show no fear - should they?
3 February 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Looking through the noise of the week
27 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Short break to Goldilocks?
20 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Parallels and differences to January 2018
14 January 2020, 12:00am
13 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: So far so good
8 January 2020, 12:00am
Tatton: Woodford & M&G suspensions have driven IFAs to us
6 January 2020, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2020 starts with a Trump card
23 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Goodbye 2019 - welcome 2020 and a new decade!
16 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brightening horizons - 2020 Outlook
8 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Can Trump derail the 2020 economic upturn?
2 December 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets are driving the markets
25 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Markets pause for reality check
18 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Swilling cash eases the market mood music
11 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Recession concerns retreat
11 November 2019, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2019
4 November 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Crucial October period safely behind
28 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Slowly turning
21 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit breakthrough versus Brexit fatigue
17 October 2019, 12:00am
17 October 2019, 12:00am
Acquisition of Sinfonia Asset Management Limited (SAM)
14 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
7 October 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stall speed economy fears spreading
30 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ominous US-Dollar strength
23 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Diverging economic trends - catalyst for trade war re
16 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market sentiment rebound
9 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Choppy water but no storm, yet...
2 September 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fattening 'tails'
27 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Populism politics reversing austerity?
19 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market spat between bond and equity markets
11 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond markets unnerve equity markets - again
5 August 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The Elephant and the Little Old Lady
29 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The quick and the not-so-quick
22 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ...'Twere well it were done quickly
15 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Positioning for a summer of wait and see
8 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Liquidity drives stock markets to new highs
1 July 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The middle of the year - a tipping point?
24 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Battle of the ‘doves’
17 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Mixed messages
10 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: The return of the central bank put?
3 June 2019, 12:00am
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Appointment by Frenkel Topping
3 June 2019, 12:00am
Preliminary Results For the year ended 31 March 2019
3 June 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bond rally musings
27 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting warmer
20 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Market support for Trump or unwarranted equanimity?
13 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Geopolitics re-enter market stage
7 May 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Central banks disappoint expectations
29 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Waning market stimuli put stock markets on notice
23 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Spring time from here?
16 April 2019, 12:00am
Trading Statement for 12 months ending 31 March 2019
15 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit in-limbo aside sentiment is improving
8 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Happy 10th birthday, choppy bull market
1 April 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:29 March 2019 – quarter end
25 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brinkmanship and extensions
18 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bits & Pieces
11 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ECB stimulus U-turn leaves markets unimpressed
4 March 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: £-Sterling ‘applauds’ prospect of Brexit delay
25 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress?
18 February 2019, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Investment perspectives for different Brexit outcomes
15 November 2018, 12:00am
Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2018
15 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Autopsy of a stock market sell-off
1 October 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Poor politics containing bond market risks?
27 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Brexit clamour vs. real market new
7 September 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Interesting times ahead
31 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: “Not the end of the worldâ€
24 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Steady markets vs. noisy politics
17 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Political strongman tactics come home to roost
10 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer heat wave makes way for return of political he
3 August 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A gentle deceleration?
27 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hot air for a hot summer?
20 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management:Earnings are growing, why worry?
13 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Hard Brexit demonstration potential?
6 July 2018, 12:00am
Notice of Annual General Meeting
6 July 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: It is getting hot
29 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Digesting or consolidating?
27 June 2018, 12:00am
Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 March 2018
22 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Fragile recovery
15 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: No surprises
8 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Delicate equilibrium
1 June 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Ignore politics at your peril
25 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: GDPR? No - far more interesting news!
18 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: What's the economic reality of this week's news?
11 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Batten-down-the-hatches?
4 May 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Past the peak?
27 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Confusing signals?
20 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: A mixture of messages
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Could do better
6 April 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Peaking, plateauing or dimming – and how about that
29 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: End of a stormy quarter
23 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Now we know it's risky!
16 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Back to Normal?
9 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Tariffs to growth
2 March 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Time to take some profits
23 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Change of direction or gradual normalisation?
16 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Breathing easier for the moment
9 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Meteoric stock markets crash bac
6 February 2018, 12:00am
Tatton Investment Management's Stock Market Correction Assessment
2 February 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Good news turns bad news - again!
26 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Surprises
19 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: US$ weakness versus Bitcoin and Carillion
12 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bullish sentiment rings alarm bells
5 January 2018, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Encouraging kick-off
15 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: 2017 - taking stock
8 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Progress versus Bitcoin
5 December 2017, 12:00am
Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2017
1 December 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Sudden, but not entirely unexpected
24 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Invincible markets?
17 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Yield-curve flattening: a bad omen?
10 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Nervous investors herald more volatile markets
3 November 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: UK rate rise: ‘one and done’ or beginning of rate
27 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Trick or treat season
13 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: All-time highs and Q3 results outlook: Reasons to be
6 October 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news – good news
29 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Movements
22 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: QT to reverse QE and 2-year transition period to soft
15 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: BoE guides for year-end rate hike - Bluff or real?
8 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: ‘Back to school’ amidst hurricanes, earthquakes
1 September 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Bad news, Good news
25 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer low or summer lull?
18 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: More sellers than buyers
11 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Stocks take note of North Korea crisis - or do they?
4 August 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Consolidated base but momentum dwindling
28 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer thoughts about the ‘longer term’
21 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Summer lull - delayed
14 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Pre summer-holiday investment check
7 July 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Global growth ploughs on while markets take a breathe
23 June 2017, 12:00am
New article from Tatton Investment Management: Quo Vadis Britain?